Penitenciárias federais e o efeito contágio sobre a criminalidade

This study aimed to investigate whether the installation of the four federal prisons in municipalities of Campo Grande (MS), Catanduvas (PR), Mossoró (RN) and Porto Velho (RO) affected local crime rates. In this occasion, information was used for the period from 2005 to 2016 on firearm homicide rates, as well as some municipal socioeconomic information. For that, the methodology of differences in differences (diff-in-diff) proposed to measure impacts of policies and / or exogenous actions was adopted. The main results indicate that there is a positive effect on the growth of violence in the respective municipalities. In addition, strong evidence has been found showing that the effect is even more significant in the North and Northeast regions of the country. This fact can perhaps be explained by some aspects, for example, logistical support to inmates, internalization of crime, among other factors.